Phuspa, Sisca Mayang and Muriyatmoko, Dihin (2018) Measurement Accuracy of Paimin Formula to Landslide Prediction in Ponorogo East Java. In: nternational Conference on the Role of Afro-Asian Universities in Building Civilizations, 22-23 July 2018, Ponorogo, Indonesia.

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Abstract

Since 2012 to 2017, in Ponorogo East Java, Indonesia, suffered 53 times the occurrence of landslides and caused 7 people died, 23 missing, 1 injured and 996 people evacuated. There are several methods to know the parameters of landslides vulnerability areas, one of them is the Paimin formula. The purpose of this research is applied Paimin formula to predict landslides was occurred in Ponorogo from 2012 to 2017 and measuring the accuracy of Paimin formula using Linear Regression. The prediction result of Paimin formula proves that Ponorogo has an average of landslides vulnerability area with five categories: very low 0.5912%, low 52.4465%, medium 46.0119%, high 0.9503%, and very high 0.0002%, while the average occurrence of landslides per year is 8.83 times with the percentage of landslides vulnerability areas of 16.4881 %. The accuracy of Paimin formula using linear regression resulted in value of Multiple R = 70.70%, it is including a high correlation and value of R Square = 0.4999, indicates that the parameter and or percentage was used by Paimin formula has accuracy 49.99%, while 50.01% is influenced by other percentage and or parameters. The Paimin formula is ably applied to predict for possible landslides occurrence elsewhere and the prediction of landslide not only used linear regression but also for others algorithms.

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