Ridwan, Alya Azzahra (2025) ANALYSIS OF THE SECURITY DILEMMA CONCEPT IN THE UKRAINE CONFLICT 2014-2022. S1 Undergraduate thesis, Universitas Darussalam Gontor.

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Abstract

The Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has been ongoing since 2014, has created significant security challenges for both nations and global stability. This conflict is influenced by the security dilemma, in which defensive actions by one party are perceived as a threat by the other, leading to escalation. In this context, this study aims to analyze how the seven key variables of the security dilemma are anarchy, need for self-help toward survival or security, uncertainty and fear, self-help through power competition, action-reaction dynamics, material and psychological regulators, and potential consequences—contribute to the escalation and persistence of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This research employs a qualitative approach with a primary analytical method based on literature studies. Data is collected from various secondary sources, including government documents, academic articles, and publications from research organizations and international institutions. The analysis maps how each variable of the security dilemma manifests within the Russia-Ukraine conflict and how these variables interact within the dynamics of conflict escalation. The findings reveal that anarchy in the international system compels both Russia and Ukraine to adopt self-help strategies. Ukraine has strengthened its military and cooperated with NATO, while Russia has responded with military actions and expansion of influence. Uncertainty and fear regarding each party's intentions have further exacerbated tensions, accelerating power competition through increased military budgets and arms races. The action-reaction dynamics have worsened the conflict, reinforced by material regulators such as external support and military technology, as well as psychological factors such as cognitive biases and exaggerated threat perceptions. As a consequence, diplomatic resolution opportunities have diminished. This study confirms that the security dilemma is a major factor in the persistence of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Escalation is driven by international anarchy that compels self-help strategies, uncertainty that heightens fear, and power competition exacerbated by action-reaction dynamics and regulatory factors. Therefore, resolution efforts should focus on enhancing policy transparency, sustained diplomacy, and international cooperation to reduce uncertainty and build trust. This research strengthens the understanding of the relevance of the security dilemma in complex international conflicts.

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